Brandon MorenovsAsu Almabayev

From opening bell, Brandon Moreno can dictate pace in the pocket, averaging 4.0 significant strikes per minute while Asu Almabayev looks to settle behind counters. Expect the red corner to test range with layered entries that neutralize the Orthodox stance angles.

The AgentMMA simulator flagged this as one of the tightest matchups on the card—where pace control and craftier counter windows and better damage mitigation could flip the entire narrative. Asu Almabayev must answer with clinch resets and smart cage craft to stay competitive.

Brandon Moreno brings the more polished entries (44%) while Asu Almabayev relies on defensive frames (44%).

Championship intangibles and late-round cardio will decide who takes this. But which fighter owns the edge? Keep an eye on momentum swings between rounds two and three, where AgentMMA flags the highest volatility.